Here we go again, an other trip around the sun, and I can say without risk of hyperbole that the risks have never been greater. Why 2026 will be the roughest year to date, and what you can do about it.

Technological Acceleration: The Quantum Nightmare Is Here

Let me be blunt: 2026 is the year quantum computing finally breaks everything. Not might break. Will break.

I’ve been warning about this for years, but now we’re staring down the barrel of quantum computers with enough qubits to shatter RSA and ECC encryption like glass. And what are most organizations doing? Absolutely nothing. I spoke with 17 CISOs last month at the Vegas conference, and you know how many had implemented quantum-resistant algorithms? Zero. They gave me that deer-in-headlights look we all know too well.

You think that’s bad? This quantum apocalypse is arriving right as AI-powered attacks hit their stride. The phishing emails I’m seeing now make the ones from 2023 look like they were written by kindergartners. By 2026, you won’t be able to distinguish between your CEO’s actual email and an AI-generated fake—and neither will your employees. These systems are already adapting in real-time, and your static defenses might as well be tissue paper in a hurricane.

Meanwhile, your attack surface is exploding like nobody’s business. Thirty billion IoT devices by 2026? That’s thirty billion potential entry points, folks. And don’t get me started on 6G networks. Everyone’s racing to deploy them, but nobody’s figured out how to secure them properly. Classic industry move—security as an afterthought.

And here’s what keeps me up at night: brain-computer interfaces hitting the commercial market. We’re talking about technology that connects directly to human neural systems. You think ransomware on your laptop is bad? Wait until someone holds your neural implant hostage. Maybe it’s time you finally got that GICSP certification I’ve been recommending since 2022. Just saying.

Geopolitical Factors: Nation-States Don’t Even Pretend Anymore

Remember when nation-state hackers at least tried to cover their tracks? Those days are gone, my friends. By 2026, they’ll barely bother with the charade. Why? Because the consequences are minimal and the rewards are enormous.

I was talking with a former intelligence official—can’t name names, but you’d recognize it—who told me critical infrastructure attacks will become weekly occurrences. Power grids, water systems, transportation networks—they’re all in the crosshairs. And here’s the kicker: many of these attacks will come through proxy groups, giving nations that paper-thin “plausible deniability” while they effectively wage digital war.

Meanwhile, the regulatory landscape is becoming a complete nightmare. Instead of global standards (which would make too much sense, right?), we’re getting a patchwork quilt of contradictory regulations. Did you see that Virginia law (SB854) requiring social media platforms to limit users under 16 to one hour of daily use per app, by default? That’s just the tip of the iceberg. By 2026, multinational companies will need different compliance controls for every region they operate in. Good luck with that when you’re already short-staffed.

Resource Constraints: The Talent Well Has Run Dry

Speaking of being short-staffed—it’s going to get much worse. We’re looking at a global shortfall of 5 million cybersecurity professionals by 2026. FIVE MILLION! I’ve been in this industry for decades, and I’ve never seen anything like the hiring wars that are coming.

I was on a panel with three CISOs last week, and they’re already offering six-figure signing bonuses for senior security architects. One of them told me they’ve had a SOC manager position open for nine months with zero qualified applicants. Zero! Training programs can’t scale fast enough, and universities are still churning out computer science grads who couldn’t spot a SQL injection if their lives depended on it.

At the same time, boards are tightening security budgets precisely when they should be doubling them. Classic short-term thinking. And cybersecurity insurance? Premiums are skyrocketing while coverage is shrinking faster than a wool sweater in hot water. One healthcare CISO I know saw their premiums jump 340% last renewal. For less coverage!

Emerging Threat Vectors: The Perfect Storm

Supply chains are becoming so complex that nobody—and I mean nobody—can fully secure them anymore. I recently reviewed a financial services company that had 800 third-party dependencies in their application stack. They could only vouch for the security practices of about 200 of them. That’s the reality we’re facing.

And let’s talk about North Korea, because nobody else seems to want to. By 2026, they’ll have 10,000-15,000 IT workers scattered across Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa—all operating under false identities, all funneling money back to Pyongyang. These aren’t script kiddies; these are state-trained hackers with criminal objectives and nothing to lose. They’re targeting financial systems, cryptocurrency platforms, and intellectual property with increasingly sophisticated techniques. I’ve reviewed their latest attack chains, and they’re brilliant—terrifying, but brilliant.

Then there’s deepfake technology. I saw a demo last month that chilled me to the bone. The system created a video of me—yes, ME—saying things I never said, with facial expressions and vocal inflections that were indistinguishable from the real thing. By 2026, voice authentication will be effectively useless. Think about that for a second. Lets remember the many FinTech companies that use voice authentication today, Fidelity anyone? All those nice, secure voice authentication systems? Worthless.

Defensive Challenges: Legacy Systems and False Hopes

Here’s a sobering thought: much of our critical infrastructure still runs on technology that was outdated when Obama was president. The technical debt in most organizations has reached levels that can only be described as suicidal. I audited a major transportation system last quarter running control systems from 2003—with zero plans to upgrade because “it still works.”

Everyone’s rushing to implement AI-powered security tools, but here’s what they’re not telling you: adversarial machine learning is advancing just as quickly. These defensive AI systems have blind spots that attackers are already learning to exploit. I’ve seen demonstrations where security AI was completely bypassed using techniques that would have been obvious to a junior analyst. But we’re replacing humans with algorithms because it’s cheaper, not because it’s better.

What You Can Actually Do About It

So what’s the path forward in this digital hellscape? First, stop pretending perimeter defenses will save you. They won’t. Adopt zero trust architecture—and I mean REAL zero trust, not the watered-down marketing version your vendors are pushing.

Second, start implementing post-quantum cryptography TODAY. Not tomorrow, not next quarter. TODAY. Begin with your most critical systems and work outward. Yes, the standards are still evolving, but the basic approaches are clear enough to start.

Third, invest in your people more than your technology. The best security tool is still a well-trained, well-compensated security professional who feels valued. Create internal training programs, establish clear career paths, and pay them what they’re worth—before someone else does.

Fourth, adopt resilience as your core security philosophy. You WILL be breached. The question is how quickly you can detect it, contain it, and recover from it. If your security strategy doesn’t start with that acknowledgment, you’re living in a fantasy world.

Finally, get your board educated on these issues now. They need to understand that cybersecurity isn’t an IT problem—it’s a business survival problem. In 2026, organizations that haven’t prepared will face existential threats, not just operational inconveniences.

The storm is coming, folks. I’ve been in this industry long enough to separate the hype from the reality, and I’m telling you: 2026 is the convergence point we’ve been dreading. The question isn’t whether you’ll face these challenges—it’s whether you’ll still be in business when the dust settles.

See you at the conference in March. I’ll be the one saying “I told you so.”